Can Scotland finally end their All Blacks hoodoo?

Rugby action
New Zealand implemented several changes to the squad that overcame Ireland

International Rugby Series: Scotland v New Zealand

Venue: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh When: this weekend Time: 3:10 PM GMT

Things were simpler then. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten three home nations, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a international match.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, they beat them again. Three years further on, same story. Five more years went by and, indeed, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Through their brilliance, their power, their chicanery, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that supporters maintained for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Squad Depth

They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Rugby action
Darcy Graham was a try-scorer in the narrow loss to New Zealand in 2022

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests recently, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, they struck twice in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.

Final Analysis

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.

Miguel Olson
Miguel Olson

Tech enthusiast and digital strategist with a passion for exploring how innovation shapes our daily lives and future possibilities.